Hi Lewis,

A far more plausible scenario (if the injunctions filed against STAR are thrown out):

The first round: Jan 1, 2013

Half of the shops are excluded, and all of the crappy cars and car owners that dragged them down will go to the half that aren't excluded, dragging their scores down.

Round two: 2015

Within about two years, the half that qualified will then be cut in half by the same algorithm.

Round three and on:

Finally the algorithms will have to be fiddled with (to exclude less than half of the population), because someone with influence gets p*ssed off for being excluded, and makes a few strategic phone calls.

The new shops with no scores might come and go, filling some of the void, but their inexperience will be a serious detriment to their longevity. Complaints and rioting over inspection waiting times will eventually become a factor if nothing is done.

Like I said before, directed cars and the people who own them are like Bébé's kids; they don't die, they just multiply!

Take it easy,

Michael Barry
Technician
Quick Stop Smog & More
Sacramento, California, USA